Conclusion under the revised Hi-GAL goal

The existing observations support follow-up of embedded-protostar candidates, but do not currently identify a population-wide hidden-protostar fraction, physical lifetime correction or a confirmed temporal stellar birth. See the verified core replays.

E15 supplies the strongest positive core evidence: 12.8% of nearby catalogue prestellar clumps have a 22/24-micron counterpart, with a SPICY candidate-YSO rate of 9.3% compared with 0.38% for the remainder. This shows that a 70-micron non-detection is insufficient to exclude embedded activity. It does not by itself prove source ownership, an unbiased hidden fraction or a temporal birth.

The offset-controlled W2 estimators give approximately 9–25% point estimates, with approximately 45–55% corrected-share scenarios. These are descriptive sensitivity, not confidence bounds on the physical population. Column-correlated reddening, neighbour projections, tracer efficiency and differing evolutionary windows leave the net bias sign unknown. The reproduced very-red point estimate is 0.1867762; making it reproducible does not repair those inference assumptions.

E27/E28 found no demonstrated CLIP increment beyond clump properties in the external fragmentation/chemistry checks. E13 is qualified, E22/E26 superseded; these tests neither establish physical hidden-protostar classification nor rule out every possible future image method. E27 source, E28 source.

The registered N20 pre-fit gate gives an exact informative counterexample: distinct prevalences can yield identical indicator observations and the same known class-1 response when class dependence is allowed. Its parameters are mathematical examples, not Hi-GAL fractions. A scientifically justified independence/dependence or class-response restriction is needed before a fitted latent fraction is interpreted physically. Its empirical coverage audit also stopped on repeated maser names with differing missing distance entries; no complete joint support matrix or model was produced. Exact witness, terminal failure.

The full 19,219-clump W2 turn-on search retained no birth events after E3: all four were pre-existing YSO outbursts. The calculated upper limit is conditional on detectable W2-bright events and transferring pilot injection efficiency; it does not constrain W2-dark physical births.

The separate four unexplained E9 events are still unvetted. Three are downward changes; one is brightening. All have significant pre-onset aperture emission, which does not identify its emitter or establish the variable source’s ownership. They fail to establish a new appearance under the current evidence, but aperture emission alone does not physically refute every possible newly forming source within that beam. G333.1049−0.5056 remains an unobserved follow-up target, not a confirmed transition. No new source-specific measurement or human image review was performed in this bounded cycle. Four-event evidence.

Stop before fitting N20 or propagating absolute lifetimes under the current assumptions. Any distinct further unit must register a defensible identification restriction or column-matched control, keep all missing/ambiguous objects, and preserve source-specific temporal evidence requirements. No automatic model successor, generic-star benchmark or new survey acquisition follows this failure. E29–E160 remain an unmerged archive.

The local conclusion and updated core presentation are ready. Required external Atlas restoration remains unpublished: the owner session was checked and still has the E155 12-file readback permission prompt. Cancellation and restoration await the existing explicit approval request. Neither rejection was bypassed. The full revised goal is not marked achieved while publication remains unmet.